The Ukrainian harvest in wartime
As the conflict in Ukraine enters its second year, the first effects on the agricultural output of the country become noticeable. Both planting and harvesting has reduced significantly whilst soil degradation has increased. The impacts on agricultural exports instead, have been less pronounced thanks to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, to which Finland contributed as well.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine, the breadbasket of Europe, affected its agricultural output in many ways: higher costs, labour shortage, and damages to agricultural infrastructure and electricity distribution. The most fertile oblasts of Ukraine, where the black soil (chernozem) is present in highest concentrations, are conflict areas or occupied by the Russian army.
As stated in a report on the 2022 harvest by a consortium of Ukrainian companies and European stakeholders, planting and harvesting was hampered in conflict areas, while they were reportedly absent in occupied ones. Winter crops such as wheat were more affected than spring crops such as sunflower. For example, in Kharkiv oblast spring planting decreased by 55% whilst winter planting decreased by 70%1.
Less cultivated area
The invasion caused an overall reduction of cultivated area in the whole country of about 25%. In December 2022, about 48 million tonnes (Mt) of grain (wheat and corn) were harvested. In detail, wheat harvest total area and production decreased by about 36% and 38%, respectively: harvest losses in central Ukraine and harvest absence in occupied or frontline territories were only partially compensated in western Ukraine.
In addition, the higher logistic requirements of corn determined a decrease in its planted area by about 16% and harvested area decreased by 27%. The decrease in sunflower cultivated area and harvest area instead were 29% and 35%, ascribable to the direct involvement of its cultivation area in the conflict.
On the other hand, losses in soybean and rapeseed cultivation areas were overall compensated1. The changes in production and harvested area are summarized in the table below.
Table 1. Planted area (thousand hectares) and in harvest (million tonnes) for the main Ukrainian agricultural products.
| Sunflower | 4.7 | -29 | 10 | -43 |
| Corn | 4.6 | -16 | 27 | -36 |
| Soybean | 1.5 | +15 | 3.6 | -5 |
| Barley (spring) | 1.0 | -29 | – | – |
| Wheat | 3.8 | -46 | 21 | -38 |
| Rapeseed | 1.0 | +3 | 3.2 | 6 |
| Barley (winter) | 0.6 | -46 | 6a | -36a |
acombination of spring and winter harvest. Source: AgribusinessUkraine1
The war damages to agriculture do not involve solely harvest. According to Reuters, Ukrainian scientists have estimated that the war caused the degradation of at least 10.5 million hectares of agricultural land due to bomb shelling and soil infiltration of heavy metals and other toxic compounds2. This phenomenon has been already observed in the territories of Kharkiv oblast liberated in May 2022 but was also reported by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OCSE) in 2017 as result of the fighting in Donbass during 20143. Moreover, the clearing of mine fields in Eastern Ukraine is expected to require more than 10 years2.
Logistic challenges
The export logistic infrastructure of Ukraine, mainly relying on sea transportation through the Black Sea, was severely damaged. To relieve the situation, in July 2022, Turkey, the Russian Federation and Ukraine launched the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Within this agreement, under the aegis of the United Nations, a Joint Coordination Centre facilitates the exports of grains, agrifoods and fertilizers to the global markets. The Centre operates to ensure safe passage through the Black Sea so to tackle global food insecurity and hunger4.
The data published by the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture indicated that corn, wheat, and sunflower oil were the main products exported from Ukraine by ship, as result of the Black Sea Grain Initiative5. The main importers of Ukrainian agrifood products were China, Spain, Turkey, Italy, Netherlands, and Egypt. Developing countries constitute the main destination of Ukrainian products through this channel (55% of total commodity, 65% of wheat, 49% of corn)6.
Finland contributes to implement this Initiative as well, by funding the World Food Programme (WFP) with 5 million €. Within this framework, Finland buys and ships Ukrainian grains to some areas affected by the food crisis, for instance to Somalia and to other countries in the Horn of Africa7.
Regarding the overall export, as of March, corn slightly exceeded forecasts (21 vs 18 Mt), while wheat fell slightly behind (11 vs 13 Mt). Sea-shipped corn, wheat, and sunflower oil accounted for about 25 Mt, approximately 50% of total agrifood export.
In terms of tonnage, food export through railway transportation (mainly of wheat), despite the EU Solidarity Lanes initiative (involving Germany, Poland, Lithuania, and Romania), accounted for less than a third, compared to ships. Train shipping has been decreasing since December due to shelling of the Ukrainian energy grid5.
Gabriele Beltrame is postdoctoral researcher in Food Chemistry at the University of Turku. Francesco Durante isdoctoral student in global development studies at the University of Helsinki.
References
1 https://agribusinessinukraine.com/the-infographics-report-ukrainian-agribusiness-2022-eng/
2 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/soils-war-toxic-legacy-ukraines-breadbasket-2023-03-01/
3 https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/4/3/362566_0.pdf
4 https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative
5 https://uga.ua/en/exports-figures/
6 https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/ukrainian-grain-exports-explained/
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